Yet again, another election is here. And as far as elections go, this is as big as it gets. Donald Trump will be on the presidential ballot for a third time. His overall policies have not changed much; fixing immigration and the crumbling economy are always part of his campaign speech. His campaign tactics have also not greatly changed – focusing on directly attacking his opponents while hyping up his own previous time as president. With this, it is not surprising the amount of hate he has received over the years. From impeachments to assassination attempts, not many other U.S. presidents could claim the same. Yet despite all this, Trump’s campaign seems to be stronger than ever, as he continues to bolster support.
And on the other side, Kamala Harris is forging a new era of American politics. She is the first female non-white leading candidate and she may become the first female president of the United States. However, until recently Harris was not even expected to run. Until this past summer, current President Joe Biden had a strong intention of running against Trump again. But, after a very rough debate and the tremendous amount of support Trump received after being shot, it became clear that Biden could not win in 2024. So, as a surprise to many Americans, Biden stepped out of the race and endorsed Kamala Harris as the new Democratic candidate. Harris’s policies have been relatively unclear compared to Trump’s. She has largely argued that the re-election of Donald Trump will be the end of American democracy and that she will protect the rights of pregnant women and the middle class, but she has not been clear on her exact plans for office. But still, she quickly ascended to be tied with Trump in the polls.
So let’s look at the polls. Currently, leading election polling website 270ToWin puts Harris ahead 2.5% nationally: 49.6% of respondents want Harris as president, 47.1% want Trump, and 3.3% want someone else. The website combines data from 10 different polls to produce its analysis. This year’s key swing states are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, and what happens in those places matters more than any national voting patterns. Although recent polling data can give useful insights into the current public opinion, they are overall inconclusive. Most polls get their information from surveys sent out either by phone call or by online surveys, and because of this, polls are influenced most strongly by the people who actually respond to these surveys. There is an in-built bias within the stats because they do not show the interests of the entire voting population of America. Even the very best polling data has a margin of error of at least 3%, which is greater than Harris’s lead in most polls. Most analysts currently believe that Trump and Harris are essentially tied, regardless of what any specific poll says.
Like most recent elections, 2024 will surely be extremely close. Overall, it will come down to which areas of the U.S. have the highest turnout and which way a handful of swing states end up leaning. Current election polls remain inconclusive, so at this point we just have to keep waiting. What is undeniable, however, is that this election has a lot weighing on it. With the huge amount of economic and social change experienced over the last several years, the outcome of this election will greatly affect the future direction of the United States of America.
