One of the most important skills in fantasy football is the ability to judge risk in players. While it is impossible to completely avoid risk, as you need players to overperform, keeping your risk at a minimum is the easiest way to assure your spot in the playoffs each year. To start, let’s take a look at my top 5 safest players in fantasy football this year.

        1‌. Amon-Ra St. Brown

As an Amom-Ra St. Brown superfan, I may be slightly biased here, but St. Brown is as safe as it gets for WRs this year. Averaging over 10 targets a game as well as having only 4 games with under 90 yards last year should speak for itself. It’s been made clear that St. Brown is the only WR that Jared Goff has any interest in throwing to and for good reason. With his guaranteed target share, it’s clear that St. Brown has the highest floor for a WR in this year’s draft.

        2. Jalen Hurts

I am well aware that Jalen Hurts is not a top 5 quarterback in the league talent wise, but that’s not what this article is about. Hurts is a touchdown machine. With the tush-push still being legal, you can expect just as many QB sneak touchdowns as last year. Hurts also has one of the strongest WR cores in the league. With the new additions of Saquon Barkley along with deep threat, Jahan Dotson, the Eagles may have the next most loaded offensive weapons behind the 49ers. 

        3. Bijan Robinson

Coming off a hot rookie season, Bijan Robinson is only going to get better. While some may be worried about the addition of Kirk Cousins breaking away from the running game, Robinson is just as much of a receiving threat as he is a ground threat. Robinson is bound for another booming season with the upgraded offense.

        4. Lamar Jackson 

With his unlimited ground game, Lamar Jackson is a lock to finish top 5 in quarterback rankings. Last year, we saw the best passing version of Lamar Jackson we’ve ever seen. Despite his lack of competent wide receivers, I have zero doubt that he will get people involved and take the Ravens far this year. 

        5. Alvin Kamara

Kamara is about as consistent as it gets for running backs. He might not finish as the RB1, but with his involvement in the passing game, he is guaranteed to rack up points in ppr leagues. The Saints are also going to find themselves running the ball a good amount this year with Derek Carr at the quarterback position. 

Next up, we’ve got our bust candidates. A bust is any player who finishes at least 100 points less than their projected total or who finishes 10 spots below their ADP (average draft position). These are the guys that are going to break your season and could potentially lose you your league. 

        1‌. Kyle Pitts

Guys… what are we doing still drafting Kyle Pitts? Every year, people say the same things about how the athleticism and college highlights of Kyle Pitts wows them. It’s about time to give up on him. Last year, in PPR leagues, Kyle Pitts had a whopping total of 4 games with 10 or more points and yet he is consistently being one of the top 5 tight ends drafted. In nearly 80% of his games, Pitts finished with single digit points. And yes he has a competent QB now, but the numbers speak for themselves. It’s not going to happen this year for Kyle Pitts.

        2. Drake London

I know putting two Falcons players at the top two spots in the bust category is bold, but I just do not see it for Drake London. In his first two seasons, Drake London has been nothing but disappointing to fantasy managers. With Bijan Robinson as the clear number one and the additions of Ray-Ray McCloud along with Darnell Mooney, his target share is only going to go down. 

        3. Brandon Aiyuk 

The issue with Aiyuk is not his talent. It seems to be his dedication to the game. He held out of practice for nearly the entire preseason with hopes of being traded to the Steelers. He also did not play a single minute of preseason this year. He’s not going to be physically ready to produce big numbers to start the season at the very least. Additionally, the 49ers have the most weapons in football at the moment with McCaffrey, Deebo Sameul, and even George Kittle. 

        4. Calvin Ridley

The Tennesee Titans is where wide receiver’s careers go to die. Take a look at Randy Moss, Robert Woods, and even Julio Jones. His inconsistency was clearly shown last year as he had 7 games with under 30 yards receiving. As Ridley is turning 30 this year, he’s bound to slow down with age, especially since the Titans offense won’t be doing him any favors. 

        5.Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson is coming off of draft boards in the first round this year. That is nothing short of absurd. People are pretending that Garrett Wilson is prime Davante Adams, catching passes from a young, healthy Aaron Rodgers. I understand the potential that Garrett Wilson has, but with a 40 year old Aaron Roders who is coming off of a torn achilles, there is so much uncertainty in the air. 

Last, but certainly not least, we’ve got our sleeper candidates. These are the guys that I think are gonna be league winners, the guys that you should shoot for in the late rounds of the draft, and the guys who are straight up being drafted much lower than they should be. 

        1‌. Jerome Ford (ADP- 107)

With the uncertainty of Nick Chubb’s return, Jerome Ford is a phenomenal back who is bound to get loads of touches this year. Ford showed lots of potential last year both on the ground and receiving wise after Chubb’s injury. Chubb is expected to return by week 9, but he’s still recovering and he may not return until week 12. With Ford’s ADP at 107, it feels like a no-brainer to get him in the later rounds as he is guaranteed to be the starting back for the first 8 weeks at a minimum.

        2. David Montgomery (ADP- 75)

This does not mean that I don’t have confidence in Jahmyr Gibbs this year. I think Gibbs will likely even take a leap from last year, but with the Lions’ rock solid offensive line and the guarantee of David Montgomery’s touches at the goal line, I like Montgomery this year. Last year he had the 4th most touches in the NFL within 5 yards of the goal line. The Lions’ have also shown that they plan to use both Montgomery and Gibbs in the passing game. With an ADP at 75, I see no reason to not take a shot at Montgomery this year. 

        3. Austin Ekeler (ADP- 126)

A lot of people will likely disagree with this one, but Austin Ekeler’s play style screams fantasy points. With a new quarterback in Jayden Daniels, there’s a lot of uncertainty in that Washington offense and we don’t really know who the ball is going to this year. While it looks like Brian Robinson is going to the the starting back in Washington, I’d definitely keep an eye out for more and more Austin Ekeler production (mostly dumpoffs from a pressured Jayden Daniels) this year. 

        4. Rico Dowdle (ADP- 115)

Ezekiel Elliot is back in Dallas and it looks like he is going to be the RB1. However, Elliot is old as dirt and his body and athleticism is nowhere near what it used to be. I expect a slower start from Dowdle this year, but as the year goes on, do not be surprised if he gets more touches than Elliot. 

        5. DJ Chark (ADP- 214)

Chark unfortunately won’t return until week 6, but I think he’s going to be very strong when he does. The Chargers’ offense is so filled with uncertainty that they don’t know who their WR1 or their RB1 is. As bad as the Chargers’ receivers are, somebody has to catch the ball from Justin Herbert and I think it’s going to be all DJ Chark as the season goes on.